Transparent Conductive Films (TCF) Market Size 2015, Forecast 2025

The Report Transparent Conductive Films (TCF) 2015-2025: Forecasts, Markets, Technologies provides information on pricing, market analysis, shares, forecast, and company profiles for key industry participants.

At IDTechEx we have been closely following and analysing the transparent conductive film market for the past five years. To this end, we interviewed or visited more than 40 innovators, suppliers and end users, organised several conferences around the world, developed a detailed and constantly updated forecast datasheet, and advised our clients globally either through consulting or reports. Our market research report on transparent conductive films is the product of our efforts.

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Incumbent eventually pushed beyond its performance limit?

Transparent conductive films serve a variety of markets. They are used in touch screen displays, OLED lighting, OPVs, DSSCs, smart windows, reflective displays, etc. Note that glass-based solutions are used in the display market.

The incumbent technology (ITO on PET) currently dominates the market, controlling in excess of 95% market share. This technology has an established value chain. ITO-on-PET technology however has several performance limits: (1) its sheet resistance is typically between 100-300 ohm/sqr, (2) it can sustain a small fixed curvature, and (3) its manufacturing is subtractive.

The application space is changing but much slower than previously anticipated by many. The incumbent solution is good enough for most existing applications, but emerging sectors may push it to or beyond its performance limit. These applications include large-sized touch screens, OLED lighting, OPVs, DSSCs, smart windows, etc.

A common emerging requirement is low sheet resistance (<50 ohm/sqr) to, for example, maintain the current levels of response time and power consumption at larger touch screen sizes, or to increase efficiency of lighting modules. Another trend is the drive towards robustness in the short term and flexibility in the long term. Both these trends push ITO-on-PET outside of its comfort zone, creating a pull for the development of alternatives.

More-for-less or less-for-more?

The go-to-market strategy for alternatives is substituting an incumbent. Therefore, the claimed value proposition has been centred on a more-for-less strategy, meaning that a higher performance is offered at a lower price. This strategy makes more sense for some alternatives more than others.

Graphene, carbon nanotubes and PEDOT are all mediocre performers. Therefore, the actual value proposition for graphene, carbon nanotubes and PEDOT is same-for-more, same-for-same and less-for-less, respectively. This runs against a substitution go-to-market strategy. It is often noted that all these alternatives provide flexibility, giving them a performance advantage over the incumbent. All alternatives however offer flexibility and truly flexible applications continue to belong to the future.

Graphene, carbon nanotubes and PEDOT are all mediocre performers. Therefore, the actual value proposition for graphene, carbon nanotubes and PEDOT is same-for-more, same-for-same and less-for-less, respectively. This runs against a substitution go-to-market strategy. It is often noted that all these alternatives provide flexibility, giving them a performance advantage over the incumbent. All alternatives however offer flexibility and truly flexible applications continue to belong to the future.

Make or break years

The next two years will be make-or-break years for ITO alternatives. Indeed, we anticipate the ITO alternative scene to consolidate. The ITO alternative market conditions dramatically changed in 2014: the incumbents almost doubled the global production capacity and slashed prices by more than 30% to stave off the threat of substitutes.

In parallel, the market segments in which ITO alternatives commanded a performance advantage disappointed. This is because the sales of large-sized touch displays massively undershot expectations and the emergence of plastic but rigid touch displays proved no panacea because it barely budged ITO from its comfort zone.

The going is getting tough for ITO alternatives. The market has not grown as rapidly as anticipated but the number of ITO alternative suppliers has mushroomed with the proliferation of many ‘me too’ players.

Leading ITO alternatives are here to stay

We feel that the leading ITO alternatives will be here to stay. The reducing ITO film prices will change their value proposition form more-for-less to closer to more-for-same. This will slow the commercialisation rate but we anticipate that silver nanowires and metal mesh will reach $190m and $140m in 2025, respectively. The journey will however be slow as ITO is just good enough in most existing applications.

The battle in the metal mesh area is fought on narrowing the linewidth and improving throughput and yield. In silver nanowires, haze was a point of differentiation but now attention is focused on innovation at the formulation level. In silver nanowires, the first mover advantage will also matter

Next phase of innovation

We feel that the next phase of innovation needs to disrupt the way transparent conducting films are patterned. This a major cost driver and a particular handicap for the incumbent, despite the largely depreciated CapEx (barring new unutilized capacity brought online last year). We already see early-stage innovative solutions being touted around. It is simply the case now that being a little bit better and a little cheaper will no longer cut it in this hugely competitive field.

This report

This report provides a detailed assessment of the transparent conductive film and glass markets. It provides a data-driven and quantitative analysis and benchmarking of the incumbents and all the emerging options. We have interviewed and profiles all the key suppliers and innovators of each type technology, providing you with critical and analysed business intelligence (more than 40 interview-based profiles). We have split the market granularly by application, examining the existing markets such as LCD displays and touch screens (mobile, tablet, notebook, monitor, etc) but also a plethora of emerging ones such as OLED lightings, organic photovoltaics, dye sensitised solar cells, electroluminescent displays, smart windows, flexible wearable devices, etc.

We have built up our detailed market forecast spreadsheet in both sqm and value. We have segmented our forecasts by technology type as well as applications. The technologies that we have covered include ITO-on-Glass, ITO-on-PET, metal mesh, silver nanowires, graphene, carbon nanotubes, PEDOT, etc

OLED Display Forecast 2015-2025

LED displays are thinner, lighter, and offer better color performances compared to backlit liquid crystal displays (LCD). OLED displays are already mass produced for mobile phones and OLEDs will continue gaining market share against LCD technology.

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The next evolution is plastic and flexible displays. IDTechEx expects the first flagship phone with a flexible display to ship in 2017. Based on this scenario, the market for plastic and flexible AMOLED displays will rise to $16bn by 2020.

Browse PDF: OLED Display Forecast 2015-2025 – The Rise Of Plastic And Flexible Displays

The rise of plastic and flexible displays will be accompanied by a shift from glass substrates to plastic substrates such as polyimide. However, glass-based displays will remain an important technology, especially in TV applications where scale-up and cost reduction are still big challenges. Flat and curved OLED TVs were recently launched by Samsung and LG to critical acclaim. However, manufacturers are hedging their bets by investing in LCD backlights enhanced with quantum dots. These so-called “quantum dot LCD” TVs will be positioned as a cheaper upgrade from existing sets. Nevertheless, the market for OLED TV panels will experience steady growth over the next decade, with a projected 25% CAGR.

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Based on a deep understanding of the technology roadmap and the existing bottlenecks, IDTechEx has forecasted the OLED display market in eight segments:

Mobile phone displays
Tablet and notebook displays
TV panels
Automotive and aerospace
Wearable electronics
Industrial and professional displays
Microdisplays
Other applications

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Frequent product introductions have characterized the LED lighting industry. There is a highly competitive pricing environment with the current price point of $10 in 2013 per light about to decline to $6 per light. These market characteristics increase the need for continuous innovation.”

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Sales of LEDs that outpace incandescent bulbs in North America are expected to soon completely eliminate incandescent bulbs. The LED lighting market is anticipated to grow 45% per year through 2019. The LED lighting market at $4.8 billion in 2012 is anticipated to go to $42 billion by 2019. The reason is the declining price points, the increased interest by the channel in pushing LEDs to consumers. LEDs provide the best lighting solution. The phase out of incandescent lights has begun, the onset of LED command of the market is upon us.

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Range Extenders For Electric Vehicles Land, Water & Air 2015-2025

We are in the decade of the hybrid electric vehicle despite the fact that most off road and underwater vehicles are pure electric. That includes most forklifts, golf cars and mobility vehicles for the disabled plus Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) and personal submarines. Indeed, most electric aircraft are pure electric as well. The reason is that these are mainly small as are electric two-wheelers, which are also almost all pure electric. Small vehicles rarely need to travel long distances. In addition, these pure electric vehicles are often used where a conventional engine is banned as on lakes and indoors or where it is impracticable as with underwater vehicles. By contrast, half the electric vehicle market value lies in larger road vehicles, notably cars, and here the legal restrictions are weaker or non-existent and range anxiety compels most people to buy hybrids if they go electric at all.

Browse PDF: Range Extenders For Electric Vehicles Land, Water & Air 2015-2025

Over eight million hybrid cars will be made in 2025, each with a range extender, the additional power source that distinguishes them from pure electric cars. Add to that significant money spent on the same devices in buses, military vehicles, boats and so on and a major new market emerges. This unique report is about range extenders for all these purposes – their evolving technology and market size. Whereas today’s range extenders usually consist of little more than off the shelf internal combustion engines, these are rapidly being replaced by second generation range extenders consisting of piston engines designed from scratch for fairly constant load in series hybrids. There are some wild cards like Wankel engines and rotary combustion engines or free piston engines both with integral electricity generation. However, a more radical departure is the third generation micro turbines and fuel cells that work at constant load. The report compares all these. It forecasts the lower power needed over the years given assistance from fast charging and energy harvesting innovations ahead. Every aspect of the new range extenders is covered.

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This report profiles key developers, manufactures and integrators of range extenders for land, water and airborne electric vehicles. It gives ten year forecasts of the different types of electric vehicle and of range extenders by number, unit value and market value. Market drivers and the changing requirements for power output are analysed. Will shaftless range extenders with no separate electricity generator take over and when will that be? What fuels will be used and when? What are the pros and cons of each option and who are the leaders? It is all here.

The 3D printing materials market will be worth in excess of $600m by 2025

Market Research Report

“The 3D printing materials market will be worth in excess of $600m by 2025”, according to a recent released report “3D Printing Materials 2014-2025: Status, Opportunities, and Market Forecasts“.

The materials market for 3D printing is possibly the most contentious issue in the 3D printing industry today, write the report. 3D printer manufacturers are increasingly engaging in practices which are perceived by end-users as anti-competitive by locking customers in to their own materials supplies via key-coding and RFID tagging of material cartridges, an activity which is effectively enabling monopoly pricing of the materials concerned.

Development of new materials for 3D printing is hindered by the practice of lock-in by some 3D printer manufacturers. Barriers to entry for 3rd party materials suppliers are high, and those who do enter the market are unable to get the economies of scale required to accelerate both materials development and progress towards a competitive market.

In the short to mid-term, downwards pressure on materials prices will be driven mainly by new entrants to the 3D printer manufacture arena that do not engage in lock-in practices and enable customers to source materials from the supplier(s) of their choice, and also by pressure from large end-users wielding buying power to force prices down.

According to the report, the market for photopolymers will retain the largest single segment of the market through to 2025 although the other materials markets will gain market share in terms of tons produced driven largely by the move away from prototyping/tooling applications towards final product manufacture.

The current breakdown of the materials market:

Highest growth will be seen in the market for metal powders, although production, currently placed at less than 30 tons/year, will remain relatively low. This, in combination with high raw material and processing prices, will combine such that prices for these materials will fall more slowly than for alternative 3D printing materials.

Market growth in a business-as-usual scenario when lock-in remains common practice and prices remain high will be steady, as illustrated below.

However, extensive interviews with both materials developers and end-users indicate that prices are falling. This will modulate growth of the market size even as mass production increases in line with the growth of the cumulative installed base.

Further, for any given material class, market size (in terms of $M) is more sensitive to the installed base of the corresponding 3D printer technology than to the actual price of the materials themselves. Should material prices increase, only a small reduction in the average utilisation rate of the printer installed base is required for the market size to actually fall as a result.

Electric Vehicle Traction Batteries Market Research 2011-2021

Market Research Report

A recent Traction Battery Market Research report gave some interesting projections about the electric vehicle battery market. As with any market predictions, it’s difficult to accurately pinpoint exactly what the future will hold, and therefore any forward-looking reports should be taken with a grain of salt. But the findings presented by IDTechEX offer a glimpse into the current state of the market and some expected trends over the next 10 years.

The report focused on the full range of the traction battery market. As defined by the report, traction batteries include batteries not only for EV and HEV vehicles, but also batteries for electric bicycles, golf carts, forklifts, personal mobility devices, and other transport devices.

Some of the findings include:

The rapidly growing market for traction batteries will exceed $55 billion in only ten years.
The largest replacement market is for e-bikes today.
Replacement batteries will not be dominated by cars when these batteries last the life of the cars—something likely to happen within ten years.
Vehicle manufacturers are often employing new battery technology first in their forklifts or e-bikes, not cars.
There is huge progress with car batteries as well—indeed oversupply is probable in this sector at some stage.
The second largest volume of electric vehicles being made in 2010 is mobility aids for the disabled but in ten years’ time it will be hybrid cars.
The market for car traction batteries will be larger than the others but there will only be room for six or so winners in car batteries.

Arbin Instruments is uniquely positioned to provide test systems for every facet of this rapidly growing and changing industry. Our broad range of standard products includes testing systems for every facet of the traction battery market. From research-level systems to our powerful EVTS-X line of testers, Arbin provides the highest quality test stations with unmatched versatility, all at an unbeatable price.EVTS-X2

Today, Arbin is the leading global manufacturer of battery, capacitor, and fuel cell test equipment. Currently, there are more than 3000 Arbin systems running in more than 50 countries. With sales and support staff in 17 countries, Arbin is ready to serve clients around the world.

Contact Arbin today to speak to one of our sales engineers about a test system for your application.

Original Arbin

Flexible, Printed and Thin Film Batteries 2015 – 2025: Business Monitor International

Market Research Report

Thin, flexible and printed batteries have commercially existed for more than ten years. Traditionally, the micro-power thin and printed batteries were used in skin patches, RFID tags and smart cards. Today however the composition of the target market has drastically changed with greatest interest from wearable devices, consumer electronics and Internet of Things.

Browse PDF Flexible, Printed And Thin Film Batteries Market 2015 – 2025

This change in focus has generated intense activity from big names such as Apple, LG, Samsung, Nokia, STMicroelectronics and others. At the same time, it has enticed many others to enter the foray despite many companies such as Infinite Power Solutions, Power Paper, KSW Microtec leaving the business due to lacklustre or sporadic success.

IDTechEx provides detailed technology assessments and benchmarking, ten-year market forecasts segmented by application and technology type, and detailed interview-based business intelligence and profiles on key players and large end users.

In this study IDTechEx has drawn upon at least 35 direct interviews and visits with key suppliers and large end users from a variety of sectors and years of accumulated experience and market knowledge for the end use applications such as active RFIDs, smart cards, skin patches, smart packaging and recently wearables. Our team working on this project has been highly technical, enabling it to fully understand the merits and challenges of each technology in this complex landscape.

The market and technology landscape is complex. There are no black-and-white and clear technology winners and the definition of market requirements is in a constant state of flux.

Indeed, on the technology side, there are many solutions that fall within the broad category of thin film, flexible or printed batteries. These include printed zinc-based batteries, thin lithium batteries, thin film lithium polymer batteries, curved lithium ion batteries and also thin flexible supercapacitors. It is a confusing technology landscape which makes it challenging for developers to bet on the right technology and devise best product positions. It also creates uncertainty for the end users.

On the market side, many applications are still emerging and the requirements are fast evolving with time. The target markets are also very diverse, each with different requirements for power, lifetime, thinness, cost, charging cycles, reliability, flexibility, etc. This diversity of requirements means that no thin film battery solution offers a one-size-fits-all solution.

In general, wearable electronics is a major growth area for thin film and flexible batteries. This is because energy storage is a major technology challenge. Conventional secondary batteries may meet the energy requirements of wearable devices, but they struggle to achieve flexibility, thinness and light weight. These new market requirements open up the space for energy storage solutions with novel form factors. Indeed, the majority of thin film battery companies tell us that they have on-going projects in the wearable technology field. High-energy thin film batteries have the highest potential here followed by printed rechargeable zinc battery provided the latter can improve.

The healthcare sector is also a promising target market. Skin patches using printed batteries are already a commercial reality while IDTechEx anticipates that the market for disposable medical devices requiring micro-power batteries will also expand. Here, printed zinc batteries have the highest potential but price needs to continue falling before a higher market uptake takes place. Here too, new form factors will be the key differentiator compared to the high-volume incumbents such as coin cell batteries.

Medical diagnostic devices, medical sensors and memory backups are also promising markets. Here, LiPON-based thin lithium battery deliver most value as these applications require stable power sources with extreme safety, long life time and high capacity. The current thin battery technology is not mature enough yet to be applied straightaway. Wireless sensors/networks application is another important trend. Here, there is a trend to combine energy harvesting with thin batteries with superior form factors.

Active and battery-assisted passive RFID is also a potential target market although coin-cells are the main solutions unless there is a stringent requirement for laminar or flexible design such as in car plates. It is also in these small niches that thin film batteries might find place.

Smart cards also remain an attractive sector and several thin film battery technologies have been optimised to meet the lamination requirements for card manufacture. The price is however too steep and lifetime too low for primary batteries (and charging challenging for secondary ones) to enable widespread market penetration. The emerging of online and mobile banking carries a long-term threat of substitution.

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